As a supporter of the deposed regime in Syria, Moscow wishes to retain two military bases there as a logistical base for its operations in the Sahel. Moreover, Vladimir Putin's inability to save his Syrian ally is casting doubt among West African juntas on the solidity and reliability of their Russian partner.

A lightning rebel offensive early this month caught Syria’s ruling clan off guard. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia on December 8, leaving behind many of his collaborators, some of whom sought refuge in neighbouring countries.