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COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: BanRep surprised with a smaller 25bp cut to 9.50%
In a hawkish twist, BanRep cut the policy rate by 25pb, below market consensus and our call for a 50bp cut. The smaller cut is the first time the Board slows the pace of the easing cycle (50bp pace ...
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ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially at the beginning of 4Q24
Activity rose sequentially in October. According to the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy), economic activity expanded by 0.6% MoM/SA in October, following a revised 0.0% MoM/SA growth in September ...
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MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: 25-bp rate cut in a (surprising) unanimous decision
In a unanimous decision, Banco de Mexico (Banxico) cut its policy rate by 25-bp, to 10.0%, in line with the Bloomberg’s consensus, but lower than our 50-bp call. The one-year real ex-ante rate of 6.0% ...
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ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected trade surplus in November
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 1.2 billion in November, well above the USD 0.6 billion deficit registered in the same month of 2023. The surplus was above market expectations according to ...
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COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened slightly in October
The trade deficit in October came in at USD 1.1 billion, widening by USD 0.1 billion with respect to October 2023. The trade deficit was slightly above the Bloomberg market consensus of USD 1.0 ...
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ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation continued in November
Argentina’s treasury ran yet another primary surplus in November, reaching ARS 1381.5 billion, significantly above the deficit of ARS 210.5 billion posted one year earlier. The nominal fiscal balance ...
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CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Domestic demand weakness projected to eventually drive inflation down
The BCCh’s 4Q24 IPoM revised inflation up again, moderated domestic demand growth, and projects a slightly higher policy rate path. Inflation … déja vu. Inflation was revised up, yet again, due to the ...
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CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A hawkish cut to end the year, signaling a pause
In line with the consensus and our expectation, the Board of the Central Bank of Chile unanimously decided to lower the monetary policy rate by 25bp to 5.00% in the final monetary policy decision of ...
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CHILE – Monetary Policy & IPoM Preview: A balancing act
Continuing to signal a path towards neutral. The recent CLP developments, if maintained, should sustain higher core goods prices in the near-term, and prevent a swifter CPI correction in 2025. Another ...
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COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Preview: Unlikely to diverge from the strategy of 50bps
We expect BanRep to maintain the 50bp pace in December. Sticky services inflation, above-target core inflation expectations, market pricing of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, heightened ...
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MEXICO – Positive data from aggregate supply and demand in 3Q24
3Q24 aggregate supply and demand rose 2.3% YoY NSA (Bloomberg: 2.3%, prior: 2.1%). While the rise was broad-based, exports (8.0% YoY) were the highlight of the quarter, mainly due to the exchange rate ...
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ARGENTINA – Exiting the recession in 3Q24 at a stronger than expected pace
GDP expanded by 3.9% QoQ/SA, after contracting in the previous three quarters. The rebound was greater than anticipated by the GDP proxy EMAE (3.4% QoQ/SA in September). Thus, the statistical ...